Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 8?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 8

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$151.42

Combined PnL

$30.83

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 92¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$107.17

Total Shares117

Combined PnL-$0.63

Yes2 traders

Total Value$43.77

Total Shares265

Combined PnL+$31.45

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$68.29	$47.05	+$0.11	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$10.87	$40.47	+$29.6	37% 913-1562 (2475)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 94¢	$23.77	$24.24	+$0.47	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$17.32	$16.7	-$0.62	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$9.06	$9.25	+$0.19	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$6.01	$5.32	-$0.69	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.61	-$0.09	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$1.45	$3.3	+$1.85	16% 4635-23687 (28322)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$68.29

Value

$47.05

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.87

Value

$40.47

PnL

+$29.6

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$24.24

PnL

+$0.47

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.32

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$0.69

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.09

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$1.85

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.