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NoYesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYesYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on November 7?
Resolved No. 11% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
9
No 25%
Total Value
$160
Combined PnL
-$30.16
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$160
Total Shares160
Combined PnL+$0.16
Yes8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares332
Combined PnL-$30.32
No — 11%Yes — 89%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $159.85 | $160 | +$0.16 | 97% 522-14 (536) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$28.66 | 60% 18915-12738 (31653) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $0.93 | — | -$0.93 | 41% 2520-3700 (6220) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.25 | — | -$0.73 | 35% 1022-1939 (2961) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 46% 3898-4513 (8411) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 46% 10314-12253 (22567) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$159.85
Value
$160
PnL
+$0.16
Record
97%
522-14 (536)
GR
graynotebook19CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$28.66
Record
60%
18915-12738 (31653)
12
123987456CTR<$100Invested
$0.93
Value
—
PnL
-$0.93
Record
41%
2520-3700 (6220)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.73
Record
35%
1022-1939 (2961)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
HA
haveagooddayCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
3898-4513 (8411)
SM
smallreceiptCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
10314-12253 (22567)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x648e6e9c...a65550
Slug
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-7-2026-16corhigher