Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 5?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

28.5¢ → 99.8¢

+250% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,065

Combined PnL+$514.33

No4 traders

Total Value$10.99

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$840.95

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 25.5¢	$869.12	$670.1	+$508.8	41% 838-1207 (2045)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 32¢	$98.2	$303.81	-$10.74	56% 705-551 (1256)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$11.6	$39.6	-$4.2	32% 2221-4718 (6939)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Yesavg 46.2¢	$9.56	$20.46	+$11.11	58% 6728-4790 (11518)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$57.85	$9.88	+$3.69	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Yesavg 98.9¢	$9.89	$9.87	-$0.02	97% 221-6 (227)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.02	$5.94	+$4.9	26% 7302-21086 (28388)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$0.47	$4.95	+$4.48	42% 2328-3175 (5503)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 3.6¢	$63.07	$0.41	+$841.89	53% 4521-4027 (8548)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$27.83	$0.38	-$27.44	54% 10589-9151 (19740)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 61.2¢	$129.27	$0.32	+$22.82	52% 30872-28974 (59846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$869.12

Value

$670.1

PnL

+$508.8

Record

41%

838-1207 (2045)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$98.2

Value

$303.81

PnL

-$10.74

Record

56%

705-551 (1256)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.6

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$4.2

Record

32%

2221-4718 (6939)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.56

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$11.11

Record

58%

6728-4790 (11518)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$57.85

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$3.69

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$0.02

Record

97%

221-6 (227)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$4.9

Record

26%

7302-21086 (28388)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$4.48

Record

42%

2328-3175 (5503)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$63.07

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$841.89

Record

53%

4521-4027 (8548)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$27.83

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$27.44

Record

54%

10589-9151 (19740)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$129.27

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$22.82

Record

52%

30872-28974 (59846)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.