Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 3?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $152 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$151.79
-$2.39
97.9¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.85 | -$0.08 | 61% 13978-8791 (22769) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $46.34 | $46.34 | +$0 | 35% 711-1331 (2042) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $0.18 | $29.94 | -$0.01 | 49% 9109-9642 (18751) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.36 | $0.66 | -$2.3 | 46% 1573-1834 (3407) |
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.85
PnL
-$0.08
Record
61%
13978-8791 (22769)
Invested
$46.34
Value
$46.34
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
711-1331 (2042)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$29.94
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
9109-9642 (18751)
Invested
$2.36
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$2.3
Record
46%
1573-1834 (3407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.