Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 2?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $742 held · ended Nov 2

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$742.46

Combined PnL

$630.08

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$740.81

Total Shares741

Combined PnL+$653.54

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.64

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$23.46

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 0.8¢	$5.28	$655.25	+$649.97	42% 1899-2623 (4522)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$42.72	$42.74	+$0.02	31% 1943-4366 (6309)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93¢	$57.44	$23.92	+$3.54	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$23.23	$15.26	-$0.01	41% 944-1372 (2316)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$8.93	$3.64	+$0.02	36% 636-1125 (1761)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$24.68	$0.96	-$23.72	60% 2356-1540 (3896)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$63.27	$0.67	+$0.27	55% 3850-3091 (6941)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$123.9	$0.01	-$0.02	35% 711-1331 (2042)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$5.28

Value

$655.25

PnL

+$649.97

Record

42%

1899-2623 (4522)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$42.72

Value

$42.74

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

1943-4366 (6309)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$57.44

Value

$23.92

PnL

+$3.54

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$23.23

Value

$15.26

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

944-1372 (2316)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

$3.64

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

636-1125 (1761)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.68

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$23.72

Record

60%

2356-1540 (3896)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.27

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

3850-3091 (6941)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

35%

711-1331 (2042)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.