Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 16?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $324 held · ends Nov 16

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$323.58

Combined PnL

$195.65

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 74¢

+31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$265.09

Total Shares358

Combined PnL+$65.95

Yes4 traders

Total Value$58.37

Total Shares216

Combined PnL+$129.7

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 53.4¢	$157.5	$198.1	+$57.61	43% 855-1149 (2004)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.7	$31.77	+$21.07	52% 2359-2143 (4502)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 61¢	$24.4	$29.6	+$5.2	38% 335-540 (875)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$522.72	$17.15	+$114.7	54% 1248-1069 (2317)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 74¢	$13.69	$13.69	+$0	29% 1126-2794 (3920)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 69¢	$8.85	$9.49	+$0.64	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.8¢	$13.12	$7.91	-$5.21	70% 985-425 (1410)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$5.62	$7.5	+$1.87	52% 1000-941 (1941)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.07	$6.7	+$0.63	30% 1197-2740 (3937)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$2.4	$1.54	-$0.86	46% 3434-3964 (7398)

241532532432

Invested

$157.5

Value

$198.1

PnL

+$57.61

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.7

Value

$31.77

PnL

+$21.07

Record

52%

2359-2143 (4502)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$24.4

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$5.2

Record

38%

335-540 (875)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$522.72

Value

$17.15

PnL

+$114.7

Record

54%

1248-1069 (2317)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$13.69

Value

$13.69

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1126-2794 (3920)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$9.49

PnL

+$0.64

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.12

Value

$7.91

PnL

-$5.21

Record

70%

985-425 (1410)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$1.87

Record

52%

1000-941 (1941)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.63

Record

30%

1197-2740 (3937)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.86

Record

46%

3434-3964 (7398)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.