Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on November 16?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 90¢ · $444 held · ends Nov 16

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$443.91

Combined PnL

$29.06

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 90¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$401.74

Total Shares447

Combined PnL+$11.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$41.84

Total Shares418

Combined PnL+$17.88

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 86.7¢	$250.18	$152.03	+$8.19	53% 2352-2120 (4472)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93¢	$91.21	$88.74	-$2.47	42% 803-1100 (1903)
Haradwaith	Noavg 85.5¢	$215.79	$80.94	+$5.65	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$324.2	$40.9	+$17.98	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 92¢	$36.8	$36.4	-$0.4	34% 352-671 (1023)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92¢	$23.54	$22.78	-$0.77	50% 919-925 (1844)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 92¢	$14.08	$13.92	-$0.15	26% 603-1747 (2350)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.68	$4.63	-$0.05	49% 854-884 (1738)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$35.46	$2.31	+$1.19	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.04	$0.93	-$0.11	46% 3240-3776 (7016)

hello.67

Invested

$250.18

Value

$152.03

PnL

+$8.19

Record

53%

2352-2120 (4472)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$91.21

Value

$88.74

PnL

-$2.47

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Haradwaith

Invested

$215.79

Value

$80.94

PnL

+$5.65

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$324.2

Value

$40.9

PnL

+$17.98

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$36.8

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$23.54

Value

$22.78

PnL

-$0.77

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$14.08

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26%

603-1747 (2350)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.46

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.11

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.