Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 16?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 16

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$197.77

Combined PnL

-$26.26

Smart Money Entry

10.1¢ → 5.5¢

-46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$102.72

Total Shares1,284

Combined PnL-$27.44

No5 traders

Total Value$95.05

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$1.17

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$67.41	$59.32	-$8.09	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 94¢	$37.6	$37.2	-$0.4	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$46.51	$32	-$14.51	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90¢	$23.03	$23.93	+$0.9	49% 854-884 (1738)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88¢	$14.08	$14.96	+$0.88	71% 950-388 (1338)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 94¢	$14.38	$14.23	-$0.15	26% 603-1747 (2350)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.7	$9.41	-$1.28	53% 2352-2120 (4472)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.78	$4.73	-$0.05	57% 836-638 (1474)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$4.2	$1.28	-$2.4	29% 308-740 (1048)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.86	$0.71	-$1.15	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.41

Value

$59.32

PnL

-$8.09

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$37.6

Value

$37.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.51

Value

$32

PnL

-$14.51

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$23.03

Value

$23.93

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.08

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$0.88

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$14.38

Value

$14.23

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26%

603-1747 (2350)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.7

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

2352-2120 (4472)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$2.4

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.15

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.