Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on November 15?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (9%) · No at 100¢ · $160 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 9%

Total Value

$160.06

Combined PnL

-$35.57

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$159.92

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$0.09

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares282

Combined PnL-$35.66

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.83	$159.92	+$0.09	99% 1609-24 (1633)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.04	$0.05	-$19.78	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.09	$0.02	-$4.07	52% 909-844 (1753)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	34% 352-671 (1023)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	38% 317-524 (841)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.46	$0.01	-$2.44	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.18	$0.01	-$2.17	22% 113-392 (505)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.07	$0.01	-$0.06	58% 864-619 (1483)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.61	$0	-$1.15	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1626-2854 (4480)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.12	$0	-$0.12	28% 3298-8406 (11704)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.83

Value

$159.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$19.78

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.07

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.44

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.17

Record

22%

113-392 (505)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.61

Value

PnL

-$1.15

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1626-2854 (4480)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.