Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on November 15?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $177 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$176.6

Combined PnL

-$22.57

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$176.42

Total Shares177

Combined PnL+$0.28

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.18

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$22.84

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$39.88	$39.96	+$0.08	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.97	+$0.09	39% 327-521 (848)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$26.94	$26.99	+$0.05	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.98	$22.98	+$0	47% 887-1007 (1894)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.98	+$0.04	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.16	$15.16	-$0	49% 854-884 (1738)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.99	+$0.02	38% 317-524 (841)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.02	$5.02	+$0	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.37	$1.37	+$0	50% 919-925 (1844)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.04	$0.12	-$19.52	29% 308-740 (1048)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.46	$0.03	-$2.43	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.07	$0.01	-$0.06	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0.01	-$0.81	52% 909-844 (1753)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.04	$0.01	-$0.03	40% 2676-3963 (6639)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$26.94

Value

$26.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$22.98

Value

$22.98

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.16

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.04

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$19.52

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.43

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.81

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.