Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$127.01

Combined PnL

-$12.25

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 98.9¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$126.28

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$1.37

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.59

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$13.62

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$61.42	$62.47	+$1.04	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$26.76	$26.71	-$0.05	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$9.77	$9.89	+$0.12	30% 1165-2723 (3888)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$9.71	$9.89	+$0.18	38% 319-511 (830)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.89	+$0.09	37% 305-523 (828)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.94	-$0.01	36% 1617-2828 (4445)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1580-23 (1603)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.04	$0.35	-$13.49	29% 293-715 (1008)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.37	$0.24	-$0.13	47% 1230-1384 (2614)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$61.42

Value

$62.47

PnL

+$1.04

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$26.76

Value

$26.71

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.77

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$0.12

Record

30%

1165-2723 (3888)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$0.18

Record

38%

319-511 (830)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.01

Record

36%

1617-2828 (4445)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.04

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$13.49

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.