Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 88¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 15

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$146.03

Combined PnL

-$6.97

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$109.55

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$8.5

Yes4 traders

Total Value$36.48

Total Shares323

Combined PnL-$15.47

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82¢	$51.81	$56.21	+$4.4	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$68.19	$30.81	-$37.38	54% 1229-1029 (2258)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$24.53	$26.63	+$2.1	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.9	+$0.6	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.9	+$0.6	36% 268-480 (748)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.1	$8.9	+$0.8	31% 1085-2425 (3510)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$183.1	$2.3	+$22.69	31% 229-507 (736)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$1.6	$1.78	+$0.18	49% 820-849 (1669)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2.56	$1.6	-$0.96	41% 726-1042 (1768)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$51.81

Value

$56.21

PnL

+$4.4

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.19

Value

$30.81

PnL

-$37.38

Record

54%

1229-1029 (2258)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.53

Value

$26.63

PnL

+$2.1

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.6

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.6

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.8

Record

31%

1085-2425 (3510)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.1

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$22.69

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.96

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.