Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 44¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 15

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$189.15

Combined PnL

$95.45

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 44¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$126.71

Total Shares289

Combined PnL-$10.45

Yes4 traders

Total Value$62.44

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$105.9

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$72.31	$73.11	+$0.8	68% 89-42 (131)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 42.7¢	$94.47	$42.07	+$19.2	42% 783-1092 (1875)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$32.84	$27.49	-$5.36	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$16.2	$13.06	-$3.14	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$53.37	$12.11	+$85.41	29% 293-715 (1008)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$3.86	$5.11	+$1.26	65% 4367-2386 (6753)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.2	$4.35	-$0.85	42% 1683-2319 (4002)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.2	$4.35	-$0.85	30% 1165-2723 (3888)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.4	$4.35	-$1.05	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 55.3¢	$3.11	$3.15	+$0.04	71% 939-382 (1321)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Invested

$72.31

Value

$73.11

PnL

+$0.8

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.47

Value

$42.07

PnL

+$19.2

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$32.84

Value

$27.49

PnL

-$5.36

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$13.06

PnL

-$3.14

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.37

Value

$12.11

PnL

+$85.41

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$1.26

Record

65%

4367-2386 (6753)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.85

Record

42%

1683-2319 (4002)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.85

Record

30%

1165-2723 (3888)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$1.05

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.04

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.