Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 15?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $404 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$404.35
$17.74
72.1¢ → 67.5¢
-6% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 71.3¢ | $329.06 | $164.18 | +$27.28 | 32% 168-365 (533) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $90 | $82.11 | -$7.89 | 55% 1217-1009 (2226) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $44.7 | $43.58 | -$1.12 | 53% 7051-6190 (13241) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $43.31 | $43.31 | -$0 | 26% 550-1579 (2129) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $23.7 | $20.7 | -$3 | 30% 1043-2403 (3446) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $31.32 | $18.63 | +$0.31 | 40% 660-990 (1650) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $16.56 | $16.56 | +$0 | 30% 99-232 (331) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $8.2 | $8.37 | +$0.17 | 52% 1716-1565 (3281) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $6.9 | +$1.99 | 34% 276-525 (801) |
HaradwaithInvested
$329.06
Value
$164.18
PnL
+$27.28
Record
32%
168-365 (533)
Invested
$90
Value
$82.11
PnL
-$7.89
Record
55%
1217-1009 (2226)
Invested
$44.7
Value
$43.58
PnL
-$1.12
Record
53%
7051-6190 (13241)
Invested
$43.31
Value
$43.31
PnL
-$0
Record
26%
550-1579 (2129)
Invested
$23.7
Value
$20.7
PnL
-$3
Record
30%
1043-2403 (3446)
Invested
$31.32
Value
$18.63
PnL
+$0.31
Record
40%
660-990 (1650)
Invested
$16.56
Value
$16.56
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
99-232 (331)
Invested
$8.2
Value
$8.37
PnL
+$0.17
Record
52%
1716-1565 (3281)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$6.9
PnL
+$1.99
Record
34%
276-525 (801)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.