Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $246 held · ended Nov 15

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$246.47

Combined PnL

-$5.59

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 83.8¢

-8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$227.79

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$26.69

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.64

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$21.1

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$80.12	$83.02	+$2.9	71% 950-388 (1338)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$61.17	$47.05	-$14.11	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$46.79	$28.58	-$8.39	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$26.02	$25.64	-$0.38	68% 89-42 (131)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$277.31	$17.46	+$20.45	42% 803-1100 (1903)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$19.33	$14.9	-$4.42	39% 327-521 (848)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$13.53	$12.9	-$0.62	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$12.95	$11.42	-$1.53	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$4.4	$4.28	-$0.13	60% 874-593 (1467)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$0.54	$1.19	+$0.65	40% 2676-3963 (6639)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$80.12

Value

$83.02

PnL

+$2.9

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$61.17

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$14.11

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.79

Value

$28.58

PnL

-$8.39

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$26.02

Value

$25.64

PnL

-$0.38

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$277.31

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$20.45

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.33

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$4.42

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$13.53

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.62

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$12.95

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$1.53

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$0.13

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0.65

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.4%

83.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.