Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$126.69

Combined PnL

-$73.45

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$125.17

Total Shares125

Combined PnL-$2.59

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.51

Total Shares606

Combined PnL-$70.86

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.9	$74.81	-$0.09	34% 244-467 (711)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.8	$21.77	-$0.03	30% 240-572 (812)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$46.75	$16.8	-$2.68	30% 1036-2402 (3438)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$11.59	$11.8	+$0.21	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$114.23	$0.53	-$26.75	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$0.49	-$17.46	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.55	$0.15	-$5.39	51% 719-703 (1422)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.62	$0.14	-$7.37	31% 161-352 (513)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.52	$0.12	-$4.4	26% 548-1577 (2125)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$79.7	$0.06	-$9.04	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.44	37% 1527-2596 (4123)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$74.9

Value

$74.81

PnL

-$0.09

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$21.8

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

240-572 (812)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$46.75

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$2.68

Record

30%

1036-2402 (3438)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.59

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.23

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$26.75

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$17.46

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$5.39

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.62

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$7.37

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$4.4

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.7

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$9.04

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.44

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.