Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on November 14?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $205 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$205.47

Combined PnL

-$71.87

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$204.8

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$0.16

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares677

Combined PnL-$72.03

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.8¢	$129.71	$129.87	+$0.16	99% 1281-15 (1296)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.93	+$0	30% 1036-2402 (3438)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$72.31	$0.26	-$27.18	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$0.2	-$17.75	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.62	$0.08	-$7.54	31% 161-352 (513)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.55	$0.06	-$5.48	51% 719-703 (1422)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.52	$0.05	-$4.47	26% 548-1577 (2125)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$79.7	$0.03	-$9.15	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.45	37% 1527-2596 (4123)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$129.71

Value

$129.87

PnL

+$0.16

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1036-2402 (3438)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.31

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$27.18

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$17.75

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.62

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.54

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.48

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.47

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.7

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$9.15

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.