Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 13?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 77¢ · $218 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$218.48
$9.89
73.9¢ → 77¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $89.37 | $93.42 | +$4.05 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $65.7 | $69.75 | +$4.05 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $19.42 | $20.43 | +$1.01 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $15.4 | $15.5 | +$0.1 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $15.5 | +$0.5 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.88 | +$0.17 | 39% 1286-2003 (3289) |
Invested
$89.37
Value
$93.42
PnL
+$4.05
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$65.7
Value
$69.75
PnL
+$4.05
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Invested
$19.42
Value
$20.43
PnL
+$1.01
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$15.4
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$15
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.88
PnL
+$0.17
Record
39%
1286-2003 (3289)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.