Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on November 13?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $553 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$553.39
-$3.89
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $449.35 | $493.85 | +$44.49 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $268.92 | $348.83 | +$79.91 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.3¢ | $180.43 | $145.02 | -$35.42 | |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.8¢ | $28.45 | $27.3 | -$1.15 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.8¢ | $22.47 | $13.34 | -$2.69 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.3¢ | $8.45 | $8.4 | -$0.05 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $8.4 | +$0 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.1 | +$0 | 39% 1286-2003 (3289) |
Invested
$449.35
Value
$493.85
PnL
+$44.49
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.45
Value
$27.3
PnL
-$1.15
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Invested
$22.47
Value
$13.34
PnL
-$2.69
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1286-2003 (3289)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.