Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on November 13?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$197.9
$4.03
82.3¢ → 84¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $115.83 | $120.56 | +$4.73 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $35.06 | $34.44 | -$0.62 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $21.73 | $21.9 | +$0.18 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $16.8 | -$0.2 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.2 | -$0.05 | 39% 1286-2003 (3289) |
Invested
$115.83
Value
$120.56
PnL
+$4.73
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$35.06
Value
$34.44
PnL
-$0.62
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Invested
$21.73
Value
$21.9
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$17
Value
$16.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
1286-2003 (3289)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.