Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$49.68

Combined PnL

-$39.22

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$48.16

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.52

Total Shares303

Combined PnL-$39.29

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.92	$39.98	+$0.06	99% 809-8 (817)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.17	$8.18	+$0	58% 546-400 (946)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.75	$1.21	-$4.33	36% 72-129 (201)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.63	$0.19	-$2.17	48% 575-615 (1190)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.05	$0.07	-$12.98	59% 1169-826 (1995)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.27	$0.03	-$6.24	26% 903-2527 (3430)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$93.18	$0.02	-$11.34	30% 3000-7146 (10146)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.41	$0	-$2.23	36% 3528-6156 (9684)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$39.92

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

809-8 (817)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.17

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

546-400 (946)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.75

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$4.33

Record

36%

72-129 (201)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.63

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$2.17

Record

48%

575-615 (1190)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.05

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.98

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.27

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.24

Record

26%

903-2527 (3430)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.18

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.34

Record

30%

3000-7146 (10146)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.41

Value

PnL

-$2.23

Record

36%

3528-6156 (9684)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.