Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 53¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$163.07
$4.04
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.6¢ | $95.25 | $96.07 | +$0.82 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 50.4¢ | $33.36 | $35.41 | +$2.05 | 50% 4511-4443 (8954) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 46.7¢ | $13.25 | $14.47 | +$1.22 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $9.01 | $8.71 | -$0.3 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $5.57 | $5.74 | +$0.17 | 79% 192-51 (243) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $2.59 | $2.67 | +$0.08 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
Invested
$95.25
Value
$96.07
PnL
+$0.82
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
balthazar<$100Invested
$33.36
Value
$35.41
PnL
+$2.05
Record
50%
4511-4443 (8954)
Invested
$13.25
Value
$14.47
PnL
+$1.22
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$9.01
Value
$8.71
PnL
-$0.3
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$0.17
Record
79%
192-51 (243)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.67
PnL
+$0.08
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.