Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 56¢ · $199 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$199.32
$38.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $72.8 | $118.33 | +$45.52 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 57.7¢ | $38.22 | $37.08 | -$1.14 | 50% 4511-4443 (8954) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 69.2¢ | $19.63 | $16.46 | -$3.17 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $16.3 | $13.04 | -$1.71 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $12.07 | $11.4 | -$0.67 | 79% 192-51 (243) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $3.38 | $3.01 | -$0.37 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
Invested
$72.8
Value
$118.33
PnL
+$45.52
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
balthazar<$100Invested
$38.22
Value
$37.08
PnL
-$1.14
Record
50%
4511-4443 (8954)
Invested
$19.63
Value
$16.46
PnL
-$3.17
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$16.3
Value
$13.04
PnL
-$1.71
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$0.67
Record
79%
192-51 (243)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$3.01
PnL
-$0.37
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.