Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $91 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$91.34
-$0.35
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $37.36 | $37.13 | -$0.23 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $19.74 | $19.72 | -$0.02 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $12.08 | $12.09 | +$0.02 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $11.33 | $11.22 | -$0.11 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $6.07 | $6.02 | -$0.05 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $5.12 | $5.15 | +$0.03 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$37.36
Value
$37.13
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$19.74
Value
$19.72
PnL
-$0.02
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$12.08
Value
$12.09
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.33
Value
$11.22
PnL
-$0.11
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
balthazar<$100Invested
$6.07
Value
$6.02
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.03
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.