Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $228 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$228.07
$0.11
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $101.47 | $101.39 | -$0.08 | 36% 3058-5353 (8411) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $65.98 | $66.13 | +$0.15 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.94 | -$0.03 | 19% 65-276 (341) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $20.29 | $20.34 | +$0.05 | 78% 263-73 (336) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.26 | $5.27 | +$0.02 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $5 | +$0 | 25% 836-2480 (3316) |
LucerysInvested
$101.47
Value
$101.39
PnL
-$0.08
Record
36%
3058-5353 (8411)
balthazar<$100Invested
$65.98
Value
$66.13
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.94
PnL
-$0.03
Record
19%
65-276 (341)
Invested
$20.29
Value
$20.34
PnL
+$0.05
Record
78%
263-73 (336)
Invested
$5.26
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
836-2480 (3316)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.