Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $72 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$72.17
$0
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.34 | $20.34 | +$0 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $11.59 | $11.59 | +$0 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.27 | $5.27 | +$0 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Invested
$20.34
Value
$20.34
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.59
Value
$11.59
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.