Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$80.21
-$44.28
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $79.68 | $79.96 | +$0.28 | 99% 570-5 (575) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $11.77 | $0.07 | -$11.7 | 24% 86-270 (356) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.47 | $0.06 | -$11.41 | 47% 4794-5409 (10203) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.07 | $0.06 | -$11 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.82 | $0.04 | -$6.78 | 65% 2122-1162 (3284) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.52 | $0.01 | -$1.84 | 36% 506-908 (1414) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.18 | $0.01 | -$1.38 | 30% 2929-6852 (9781) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 39% 1379-2181 (3560) |
Invested
$79.68
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.28
Record
99%
570-5 (575)
Invested
$11.77
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$11.7
Record
24%
86-270 (356)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$11.47
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.41
Record
47%
4794-5409 (10203)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$11.07
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
Invested
$6.82
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.78
Record
65%
2122-1162 (3284)
Invested
$6.52
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.84
Record
36%
506-908 (1414)
Invested
$6.18
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.38
Record
30%
2929-6852 (9781)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
39%
1379-2181 (3560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.