Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $141 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$141.14
$0.76
99¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $65.55 | $65.95 | +$0.4 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $37.94 | $38.13 | +$0.19 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $20.13 | $20.28 | +$0.15 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $11.55 | $11.52 | -$0.03 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $5.21 | $5.26 | +$0.05 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$65.55
Value
$65.95
PnL
+$0.4
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$37.94
Value
$38.13
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$20.13
Value
$20.28
PnL
+$0.15
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.55
Value
$11.52
PnL
-$0.03
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$5.21
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$0.05
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.