Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $79 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$79.46
$3.52
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $34.22 | $36.08 | +$1.85 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $13.02 | $13.96 | +$0.94 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $12.99 | $13.51 | +$0.52 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $11.02 | $10.9 | -$0.12 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.7 | $5.02 | +$0.32 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$34.22
Value
$36.08
PnL
+$1.85
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$13.02
Value
$13.96
PnL
+$0.94
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$12.99
Value
$13.51
PnL
+$0.52
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.02
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$0.12
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$0.32
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.