Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$286.66
-$1.18
89.9¢ → 91.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 90.5¢ | $132.9 | $131.48 | -$1.43 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $54.8 | $53.7 | -$1.1 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $39.65 | $40.28 | +$0.63 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $37.34 | $38.84 | +$1.5 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $17.9 | -$0.9 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.48 | +$0.13 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
LucerysInvested
$132.9
Value
$131.48
PnL
-$1.43
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$54.8
Value
$53.7
PnL
-$1.1
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$39.65
Value
$40.28
PnL
+$0.63
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$37.34
Value
$38.84
PnL
+$1.5
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$17.9
PnL
-$0.9
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0.13
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.