Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$124.79
$0
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $108.49 | $108.49 | +$0 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.29 | $6.29 | -$0 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | -$0 | 30% 176-415 (591) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
LucerysInvested
$108.49
Value
$108.49
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$6.29
PnL
-$0
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
176-415 (591)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.