Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 11?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 50¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$157.35
-$17.99
54.6¢ → 49.5¢
-9% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.2¢ | $79.69 | $71.99 | -$7.7 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.7¢ | $32.8 | $29.4 | -$3.4 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $24.3 | $22.05 | -$2.25 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 57.7¢ | $11.5 | $9.76 | -$1.74 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $11.22 | $9.16 | -$2.06 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $9.55 | $9.12 | -$0.44 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $3.43 | $3.43 | +$0 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.45 | -$0.4 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$79.69
Value
$71.99
PnL
-$7.7
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$32.8
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$3.4
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$24.3
Value
$22.05
PnL
-$2.25
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$11.5
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$1.74
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$11.22
Value
$9.16
PnL
-$2.06
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$9.55
Value
$9.12
PnL
-$0.44
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.4
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.