Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 10?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$414.93

Combined PnL

$12.88

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 89.5¢

-2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$414.93

Total Shares413

Combined PnL+$12.88

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 87.8¢	$112.82	$113.89	+$1.06	21% 132-485 (617)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$48.67	$51.55	+$2.88	4% 14-366 (380)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 95¢	$43.7	$44.16	+$0.46	85% 22-4 (26)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$34.61	$35.23	+$0.62	28% 153-400 (553)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$39.1	$31.08	+$2.07	51% 197-186 (383)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$28.8	+$0.6	4% 15-322 (337)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$25.79	$27.18	+$1.4	17% 10-48 (58)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$23.15	$24	+$0.85	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$14.67	$15.77	+$1.1	89% 409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91¢	$13.65	$14.4	+$0.75	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 90¢	$11.52	$12.29	+$0.77	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96¢	$7.68	$7.68	+$0	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.84	$4.94	+$0.1	30% 174-414 (588)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 91¢	$3.75	$3.96	+$0.21	— 12-6 (18)

241532532432

Invested

$112.82

Value

$113.89

PnL

+$1.06

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$48.67

Value

$51.55

PnL

+$2.88

Record

14-366 (380)

merod<$100

Invested

$43.7

Value

$44.16

PnL

+$0.46

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$34.61

Value

$35.23

PnL

+$0.62

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.1

Value

$31.08

PnL

+$2.07

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

15-322 (337)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$25.79

Value

$27.18

PnL

+$1.4

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.15

Value

$24

PnL

+$0.85

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$1.1

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$13.65

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0.75

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$0.77

Record

17-463 (480)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.21

Record

—

12-6 (18)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.