Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on November 10?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $274 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$274.06

Combined PnL

-$0.2

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$274.06

Total Shares277

Combined PnL-$0.2

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$74.18	$74.25	+$0.08	11% 28-230 (258)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$53.26	$53.16	-$0.1	6% 18-276 (294)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$45.49	$45.54	+$0.05	85% 22-4 (26)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.9	$29.7	-$0.2	10% 25-236 (261)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$19.84	$19.8	-$0.04	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$14.84	$14.85	+$0.01	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$12.66	$12.67	+$0.01	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.92	$7.92	+$0	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.09	$5.1	+$0.01	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.48	$4.48	+$0	34% 150-294 (444)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.1	$4.08	-$0.02	— 12-6 (18)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	100% 93-0 (93)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$74.18

Value

$74.25

PnL

+$0.08

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$53.26

Value

$53.16

PnL

-$0.1

Record

18-276 (294)

merod<$100

Invested

$45.49

Value

$45.54

PnL

+$0.05

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.9

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.84

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.66

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.01

Record

17-463 (480)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

12-6 (18)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

100%

93-0 (93)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.