Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 10?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $273 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$273.02
$0.88
99.6¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $74.63 | $74.93 | +$0.3 | 6% 18-276 (294) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $53.46 | $53.65 | +$0.18 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $45.91 | $45.95 | +$0.05 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.97 | +$0.15 | 5% 18-315 (333) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.98 | +$0.08 | 52% 5118-4668 (9786) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $14.95 | $14.99 | +$0.04 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $14.72 | $14.76 | +$0.04 | 36% 462-806 (1268) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $14.64 | $14.67 | +$0.03 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.11 | $4.12 | +$0.01 | — 12-6 (18) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 16% 9-47 (56) |
Invested
$74.63
Value
$74.93
PnL
+$0.3
Record
6%
18-276 (294)
Invested
$53.46
Value
$53.65
PnL
+$0.18
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$45.91
Value
$45.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.15
Record
5%
18-315 (333)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
5118-4668 (9786)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.95
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$14.72
Value
$14.76
PnL
+$0.04
Record
36%
462-806 (1268)
Invested
$14.64
Value
$14.67
PnL
+$0.03
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
Invested
$4.11
Value
$4.12
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
12-6 (18)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
9-47 (56)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
haveagoodday
No — $74.93
god83743894
No — $53.65
merod
No — $45.95
graynotebook19
No — $29.97
cigarettes
No — $19.98
Lucerys
No — $14.99
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $14.76
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $14.67
donthackme
No — $4.12
LornaPredicts
CTRYes — $0.01