Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 10?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $331 held · ends Nov 10

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$331.25

Combined PnL

$3.73

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 97.5¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$329

Total Shares335

Combined PnL+$2.4

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.75

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$1.33

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$73.42	$73.43	+$0	32% 811-1697 (2508)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 95¢	$51.04	$52.57	+$1.53	11% 28-230 (258)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$51.69	$51.48	-$0.21	28% 153-400 (553)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$45.03	$45.03	+$0	85% 22-4 (26)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95¢	$21.15	$21.25	+$0.1	21% 132-485 (617)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$19.58	+$0.58	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$14.76	$14.69	-$0.07	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$12.88	$12.87	-$0.01	34% 150-294 (444)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$12.6	$12.53	-$0.06	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$11.51	$11.51	+$0	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.52	$10.02	+$0.5	31% 163-361 (524)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4	$4.04	+$0.04	— 12-6 (18)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.42	$1.75	+$1.33	17% 10-48 (58)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$73.42

Value

$73.43

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

811-1697 (2508)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$51.04

Value

$52.57

PnL

+$1.53

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$51.69

Value

$51.48

PnL

-$0.21

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

merod<$100

Invested

$45.03

Value

$45.03

PnL

+$0

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$21.15

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$0.1

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$0.58

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.76

Value

$14.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.88

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$0.01

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.53

PnL

-$0.06

Record

17-463 (480)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.51

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.5

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

donthackme<$100

Invested

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

12-6 (18)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$1.33

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.