Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 10?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 41¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 10

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$322.52

Combined PnL

-$32.18

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 41¢

-18% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$297.53

Total Shares661

Combined PnL-$32.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$24.99

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$0.21

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 49.1¢	$177	$162.26	-$14.74	21% 132-485 (617)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$38.25	$33.75	-$4.5	11% 35-270 (305)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$24.78	$24.99	+$0.21	89% 409-53 (462)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$26.42	$24.17	-$2.26	32% 811-1697 (2508)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$23	$20.7	-$2.3	85% 22-4 (26)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$16.8	$13.5	-$3.3	5% 18-315 (333)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.2	$9	-$1.2	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$7.8	$6.75	-$1.05	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$7.2	$6.61	-$0.59	36% 462-806 (1268)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$6.66	$5.76	-$0.9	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$5.92	$4.95	-$0.97	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$3.82	$3.62	-$0.2	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.42	$2.32	-$0.1	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.49	$2.29	-$0.2	34% 150-294 (444)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$1.94	$1.86	-$0.08	— 12-6 (18)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$177

Value

$162.26

PnL

-$14.74

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$38.25

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$4.5

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.78

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$0.21

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$26.42

Value

$24.17

PnL

-$2.26

Record

32%

811-1697 (2508)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$2.3

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$3.3

Record

18-315 (333)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

PnL

-$1.2

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$1.05

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.61

PnL

-$0.59

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$6.66

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.9

Record

17-463 (480)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.97

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0.2

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.1

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.08

Record

—

12-6 (18)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.