Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 1?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 13¢ · $218 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$218.49
$13.32
12¢ → 12.9¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $142.59 | $173.99 | +$31.4 | 50% 673-672 (1345) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $53.68 | $34.74 | -$18.94 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.5¢ | $4.54 | $4.54 | +$0.01 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $5.04 | $4.25 | +$1.42 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $1.54 | $0.97 | -$0.56 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
Invested
$142.59
Value
$173.99
PnL
+$31.4
Record
50%
673-672 (1345)
Invested
$53.68
Value
$34.74
PnL
-$18.94
Record
59%
1919-1349 (3268)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
466-390 (856)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$1.42
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$1.54
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.