Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 33¢ · $383 held · ends Oct 29

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$383.28

Combined PnL

$53.65

Smart Money Entry

30.1¢ → 32.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$238.62

Total Shares576

Combined PnL+$64.9

No2 traders

Total Value$144.66

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$11.26

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 29.5¢	$147.55	$207.3	+$59.75	47% 599-685 (1284)
Istaroth	Noavg 64.6¢	$157.28	$107.25	-$12.44	25% 283-842 (1125)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$36.23	$37.41	+$1.18	60% 1624-1083 (2707)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$24.24	$29.59	+$5.35	50% 1675-1660 (3335)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$16.75	$1.72	-$0.19	53% 6354-5570 (11924)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$147.55

Value

$207.3

PnL

+$59.75

Record

47%

599-685 (1284)

Istaroth

Invested

$157.28

Value

$107.25

PnL

-$12.44

Record

25%

283-842 (1125)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$36.23

Value

$37.41

PnL

+$1.18

Record

60%

1624-1083 (2707)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.24

Value

$29.59

PnL

+$5.35

Record

50%

1675-1660 (3335)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.75

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

6354-5570 (11924)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.