Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 29?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 61¢ · $522 held · ends Oct 29

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$522.02

Combined PnL

$2.16

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 61¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$233.09

Total Shares380

Combined PnL+$4.2

Yes1 trader

Total Value$75.2

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$2.05

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$236.74	$213.72	-$4.4	25% 283-842 (1125)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.7¢	$136.23	$132.51	-$4.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.6¢	$80.44	$81.21	-$0.18
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 59.6¢	$135.49	$140.95	+$5.45	47% 599-685 (1284)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$77.25	$75.2	-$2.05	60% 1624-1083 (2707)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 63¢	$71.81	$68.44	-$1.66	55% 287-239 (526)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 61¢	$14.4	$14.63	+$0.24	50% 1675-1660 (3335)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 60¢	$6	$6.2	+$0.2	32% 4342-9343 (13685)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 60¢	$2.9	$2.88	-$0.02	53% 6354-5570 (11924)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$236.74

Value

$213.72

PnL

-$4.4

Record

25%

283-842 (1125)

Both legs:

No$136.2363.7¢-$4.23

Yes$80.4437.6¢-$0.18

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$135.49

Value

$140.95

PnL

+$5.45

Record

47%

599-685 (1284)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.25

Value

$75.2

PnL

-$2.05

Record

60%

1624-1083 (2707)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$71.81

Value

$68.44

PnL

-$1.66

Record

55%

287-239 (526)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.63

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

1675-1660 (3335)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

32%

4342-9343 (13685)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

6354-5570 (11924)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.