Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 28?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 32¢ · $300 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$300.35
-$2.66
32.3¢ → 32¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 31.6¢ | $185.13 | $187.28 | +$2.15 | 46% 567-659 (1226) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $80.15 | $78.24 | -$0.24 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.4¢ | $50.41 | $53.2 | +$2.8 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.9¢ | $28.07 | $25.04 | -$3.03 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.4¢ | $36.44 | $31.63 | -$4.81 | 61% 1552-1005 (2557) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $3.2 | $3.2 | +$0 | 50% 1636-1625 (3261) |
Invested
$185.13
Value
$187.28
PnL
+$2.15
Record
46%
567-659 (1226)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$80.15
Value
$78.24
PnL
-$0.24
Record
29%
279-667 (946)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.44
Value
$31.63
PnL
-$4.81
Record
61%
1552-1005 (2557)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1636-1625 (3261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.