Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on November 6?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $140 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$140.49
-$2.23
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $139.51 | +$0.07 | 97% 305-8 (313) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.06 | $0.7 | +$0.64 | 52% 31052-29024 (60076) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.23 | $0.11 | -$0.11 | 28% 2885-7426 (10311) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.07 | $0.07 | -$1.93 | 25% 481-1459 (1940) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.1 | $0.05 | -$0.05 | 53% 12585-11023 (23608) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.13 | $0.03 | -$0.84 | 17% 4506-22058 (26564) |
Invested
$59.94
Value
$139.51
PnL
+$0.07
Record
97%
305-8 (313)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.64
Record
52%
31052-29024 (60076)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.11
Record
28%
2885-7426 (10311)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.93
Record
25%
481-1459 (1940)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
12585-11023 (23608)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.84
Record
17%
4506-22058 (26564)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.