Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$80.15

Combined PnL

-$33.42

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$33.46

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1580-23 (1603)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.45	$0.09	-$15.37	47% 881-992 (1873)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.7	$0.05	-$8.65	29% 293-715 (1008)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.83	$0.02	-$2.81	28% 3288-8374 (11662)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.05	$0.01	-$2.04	17% 858-4053 (4911)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.66	$0.01	-$1.65	24% 779-2522 (3301)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	35% 3888-7213 (11101)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0	-$0.23	25% 1354-4111 (5465)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.45

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$15.37

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.7

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.65

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.81

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.04

Record

17%

858-4053 (4911)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.65

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

PnL

-$0.23

Record

25%

1354-4111 (5465)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.