Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 15?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$175.19

Combined PnL

$0.61

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 99.9¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$172.3

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$3.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.89

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$3.35

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 88.8¢	$106.56	$24.1	+$4.5	30% 251-582 (833)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.65	-$0.25	28% 3261-8293 (11554)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$17.82	$17.6	-$0.22	43% 5159-6926 (12085)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$17.7	$17.51	-$0.19	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.7	$17.38	-$0.32	59% 827-567 (1394)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$14.98	$15.09	+$0.11	98% 1504-23 (1527)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94¢	$18.2	$14.32	+$1.12	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$13.63	$13.35	-$0.28	49% 877-897 (1774)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99¢	$16.97	$11.74	-$0.55	24% 752-2355 (3107)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	$10.13	$10.13	+$0	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$7.06	$7.08	+$0.01	51% 901-849 (1750)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$4.34	$4.36	+$0.02	58% 820-591 (1411)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$189.61	$2.89	-$3.35	42% 754-1062 (1816)

Haradwaith

Invested

$106.56

Value

$24.1

PnL

+$4.5

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.65

PnL

-$0.25

Record

28%

3261-8293 (11554)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.82

Value

$17.6

PnL

-$0.22

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$17.51

PnL

-$0.19

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$0.32

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$0.11

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.63

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$16.97

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$0.55

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.06

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$189.61

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$3.35

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.