Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 15

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$306.84

Combined PnL

$19.76

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 91.5¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$284.58

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$43.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$22.25

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$23.28

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 73.2¢	$192.75	$234.48	+$41.73	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 77¢	$15.48	$17.89	+$2.41	53% 2324-2038 (4362)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$61.68	$16.26	-$21.62	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$12.04	$11.83	-$0.21	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.72	$9.26	-$0.46	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 94¢	$6.72	$6.47	-$0.25	59% 827-567 (1394)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.83	$4.65	-$0.18	24% 752-2353 (3105)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$11.73	$4.65	-$1.66	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.34	$1.34	+$0	71% 917-377 (1294)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$192.75

Value

$234.48

PnL

+$41.73

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$15.48

Value

$17.89

PnL

+$2.41

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.68

Value

$16.26

PnL

-$21.62

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

$11.83

PnL

-$0.21

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.46

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$0.25

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.18

Record

24%

752-2353 (3105)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.73

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$1.66

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.