Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 67¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 15

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$158.65

Combined PnL

$37.65

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$130.25

Total Shares369

Combined PnL+$39.38

No5 traders

Total Value$28

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$1.72

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$87.13	$92.35	+$5.22	53% 2324-2038 (4362)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$75.05	$17.99	+$26.93	30% 250-582 (832)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$133.15	$17.05	+$6.64	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$9.21	$8.57	-$0.64	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$7.95	$6.89	-$1.06	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$5.53	$5.19	-$0.35	52% 865-790 (1655)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$3.98	$3.73	-$0.25	24% 752-2353 (3105)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$3.04	$3.62	+$0.57	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$2.28	$2.86	+$0.58	71% 917-377 (1294)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.13

Value

$92.35

PnL

+$5.22

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.05

Value

$17.99

PnL

+$26.93

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$133.15

Value

$17.05

PnL

+$6.64

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.21

Value

$8.57

PnL

-$0.64

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

$6.89

PnL

-$1.06

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.53

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.25

Record

24%

752-2353 (3105)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.58

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.4%

67.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.