Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on November 15?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 44¢ · $64 held · ends Nov 15

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$64.36

Combined PnL

$1.87

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$22.05

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$3.42

No10 traders

Total Value$42.3

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$5.28

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 32.6¢	$28.53	$22.05	-$3.42	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$20.58	$12.06	-$2.85	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$6.08	$8.68	+$2.61	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$2.78	$4.27	+$1.5	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 33.5¢	$4.13	$4.19	+$0.06	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2.07	$3.11	+$1.04	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.97	$3.11	+$1.14	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.91	$3.02	+$1.11	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 25.8¢	$1.46	$1.78	+$0.32	51% 901-849 (1750)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.44	$1.75	+$0.31	24% 752-2353 (3105)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$0.28	$0.34	+$0.06	58% 820-591 (1411)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.53

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$3.42

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$20.58

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$2.85

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$6.08

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$2.61

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.78

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.06

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$1.04

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.97

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$1.14

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$1.11

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.31

Record

24%

752-2353 (3105)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.