Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on November 15?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$159.35

Combined PnL

-$22.27

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$152.31

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$2.33

Yes7 traders

Total Value$7.04

Total Shares299

Combined PnL-$19.95

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.9¢	$139.4	$124	+$0.64	42% 783-1092 (1875)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$31.29	$28.32	-$2.97	71% 939-382 (1321)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$20.05	$2.81	-$0.14	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.45	$2.72	-$12.73	47% 881-992 (1873)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.83	$0.5	-$2.33	28% 3288-8374 (11662)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.05	$0.36	-$1.69	17% 858-4053 (4911)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.32	-$1.5	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.66	$0.29	-$1.37	24% 779-2522 (3301)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0.04	-$0.19	25% 1354-4111 (5465)

241532532432

Invested

$139.4

Value

$124

PnL

+$0.64

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$31.29

Value

$28.32

PnL

-$2.97

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.05

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.45

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$12.73

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.33

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$1.69

Record

17%

858-4053 (4911)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$1.5

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$1.37

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.19

Record

25%

1354-4111 (5465)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.