Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 14¢ · $162 held · ends Nov 14

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$161.77

Combined PnL

$59.29

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$126.73

Total Shares212

Combined PnL+$98.61

No8 traders

Total Value$35.04

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$39.32

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$19.34	$75.65	+$57.69	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$8.18	$27.95	+$19.77	63% 716-429 (1145)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.98	$23.13	+$21.15	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$11.85	$9.88	-$1.98	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$28.3	$6	-$22.3	29% 232-564 (796)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$18.1	$4.13	-$13.97	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$7.05	$3.71	-$3.33	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$1.87	$3.39	+$1.52	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$3	$3.17	+$0.17	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$2.93	$3.1	+$0.17	49% 736-769 (1505)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 19.9¢	$1.26	$1.66	+$0.4	72% 829-328 (1157)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.34

Value

$75.65

PnL

+$57.69

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$19.77

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$23.13

PnL

+$21.15

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$1.98

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$28.3

Value

PnL

-$22.3

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.1

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$13.97

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$3.33

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.87

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.4

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.9%

14.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$527.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

627.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.