Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 14?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 12¢ · $387 held · ends Nov 14

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$387.38

Combined PnL

$65.82

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 12¢

-76% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$239.7

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$46.05

No6 traders

Total Value$147.65

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$19.77

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$62.16	$166.38	+$104.22	55% 1208-982 (2190)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$61.65	$69.6	+$13.01	72% 829-328 (1157)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 71¢	$50.27	$46.71	+$3.44	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$32.75	$23.81	-$8.94	51% 746-711 (1457)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 69¢	$13.8	$15.4	+$1.6	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 87.2¢	$18.85	$14.18	-$4.67	49% 736-769 (1505)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 84.8¢	$16.75	$11.26	-$5.49	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 65.6¢	$12.26	$9.02	-$3.24	58% 684-501 (1185)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$24.69	$7.72	-$1.17	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 88.5¢	$46	$7.28	-$38.73	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$7.69	$5.16	-$2.53	48% 762-815 (1577)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 34.4¢	$3.54	$4.12	+$0.58	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 17.5¢	$1.79	$4.1	+$2.31	51% 787-755 (1542)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$5.32	$2.62	+$5.42	13% 77-497 (574)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$62.16

Value

$166.38

PnL

+$104.22

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$61.65

Value

$69.6

PnL

+$13.01

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$50.27

Value

$46.71

PnL

+$3.44

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.75

Value

$23.81

PnL

-$8.94

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.85

Value

$14.18

PnL

-$4.67

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.75

Value

$11.26

PnL

-$5.49

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.26

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$3.24

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.69

Value

$7.72

PnL

-$1.17

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$38.73

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.69

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$2.53

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.58

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.79

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$2.31

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.32

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$5.42

Record

13%

77-497 (574)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.